FOMO: XT PODCAST EPISODE 12 FT @Preston
Thank you guys for tuning into Episode 12 of the show last Friday. I do want to apologize for the late upload on this episode for those that did miss this session
We sat down with @Preston Friday afternoon and discussed how he manages to balance work / life with trading, position sizing tip and tricks, how he creates a watchlist, his risk reward strategy, Greeks, and plenty more topics.
As always, the next episode of the show will be Tuesday, 8:30 AM EST FT @RoysDad
He’s one of our newer promotions within the community, and very knowledgeable when it comes to spreads, swings, and other trading tips!
I hope to see you all there @here
FOMO: XT PODCAST EPISODE 11 FT @SwingJam
Thank you to everyone who joined yesterday regarding yesterdays session. We discussed the gold sector, how he worked on his trading psyche, what he looks for in terms of risk reward, how commodities have a play on the rest of the market, and much more.
As a reminder, we have one more episode this week which is today at 3PM EST FT @Preston
I hope to see you all there @here
@everyone my general view on the market started on the bullish side after 3 consecutive red days. I thought we could at least have some green momentum. I did mention intraday how everything was holding despite SPY moving down to support.
Then SPY dropped dramatically. Usually I look for opportunities when that happens has an over reaction is more often than not the issue. 2 days ago I posted a video on using different time-frames to find support. The 448.87ish line was clearly mentioned and again, it held. It did but was retested at the end of day. Traders psychology? Did it feel like people were looking for opportunities? Not as much at that point. 4th red day in a row. Maybe that report saying we could expect negative returns on the S&P 500 to be negative over the next decade didn’t really help.
We move on. We brush it off. We learn. We adapt. We do not ever try to recover the losses in one trade.
Learning from green plays is often easy after the fact, plus, it was all part of the plan. It becomes the expectation.
Learning from red plays need a change in the approach. What new ingredient will I need to have in my recipe to keep it working? as that cake turned out to be a pancake.
Breathe. Trust yourself. Know you can succeed. Everyone will envy successful people. No-one really will envy the efforts they put in…
Condition sell orders are fantastic for that. You sell automatically when reaching a predetermine line.
NVDA made it just under my target that was a few pennies embitious. However it did come up precisely to the intraday old support. Given the market shaking conditions, grabbing just a little bit on the first line of support would have been more profitable than pennies above a break-even play.
The end of day shakeout threw me off guard even if the 222 line is a very strong support area. 222.5c were almost in the money… Almost is zero at expiration so I didn’t want to hold.
It was breaking higher than the previous recent high, FB looked strong and so did TSLA, all heavy weights in the S&P 500. AMZN was also breaking above the trend line. I felt we could have had a push higher.
1- SPY rejected a double top. It should have triggered at least some caution about entering long. There was no bullish confirmation on the general market. Speculations need confirmations.
2- a drop under the previous support clearly confirmed the old sellers were back in control. The old resistance points didn’t not act as support.
So, should not have entered without the general market confirmation (although I was bullish on TSLA and FB) and should not have held when neither the trend line nor the old resistance were acting as new support.
@everyone autopsy of a bad day.
Red days are part of trading. As mentioned in yesterday’s podcast, they should be considered as business expenses. When ever I get a bad day, I always look back trying to pin point what went wrong and how I could have identified signals differently. The idea is to constantly be learning. The recipe that works “most of the time” will be challenged every now and then. We need to adapt. A chef will be able to reproduce the same recipe over and over again. However the challenge we face is this; we need to replicate a recipe that works using ingredients that are constantly changing… And we expect the same results.
Take a few minutes, even if you weren’t in any plays. Learning from other people’s experiences is a good way to progress. See it as your chance of redoing it again. You’ve all seen the movie with Tom Cruise, Edge of Tomorrow. Learn. Progress. Get better. Achieve your goals.
Below I’ll post charts and explanations.
I think we all recognize what attracts us to trading is the possibility of large gains in a relatively short time frame. This is also accompanied by higher risk than buying and holding shares. What we have here today is market statistics from 1990 to today on SP500 / SPX performance on a monthly basis as well as a final third (Sept to End of the Year gains).
Just putting it out there that statistically speaking going long on the markets is generally a solid plan. The median gains for the final third of the year is 5.2% gains.
We should also recognize that the first 2/3rds of this year has gained over 20% which is the largest such gain in the past 2 decades.
Therefore until the SPX trend for this year (2021) of bouncing off the 50 dSMA breaks, I would be long-biased with preparation for hedging on monthly OPEX which as we have all noticed has been the dip-buy opportunity past few months.
@everyone This one is about how you should switch to different time-frames to confirm your entries. In this video we show you that we did not use anything other than old support using confirmation from a longer time-frame. Let me know if this helps.